Economic Newsletter
Economic Newsletter- May 2025
The economy is reeling from multiple shocks, spurring economists to reshape their outlook for growth, inflation, unemployment, monetary policy, and financial markets. The silver lining is that the economy was in good shape ahead of these shocks, with unemployment low, inflation retreating, and the markets retaining most of the strong gains achieved in recent years.
Economic Newsletter- April 2025
The economy isn’t in – or flirting with – a recession, but that hasn’t stopped many from sounding the recessionary alarm. That’s not surprising. Heightened uncertainty goes hand in hand with fears of the unknown, and those fears can cause changes in behavior.
Economic Newsletter- March 2025
It would be wonderful to say that the economy started 2025 with a bang, setting the stage for another year of solid performance. Sadly, that's not the case, as key data on activity weakened and inflation jumped in January.
Economic Newsletter - February 2025
On the surface, the US economy is strong. GDP growth is near its short-run potential, unemployment is low, consumers are spending, and manufacturing is coming back to life, spurred by AI-related spending on structures and equipment.Economic Newsletter - January 2025
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in its three-month-old easing cycle that started with a robust half- point reduction in September. The latest quarter-point cut won’t be the last, according to predictions made at the December 17-18 policy meeting.Economic Newsletter - December 2024
Reflections on the U.S. elections are ongoing and will likely dominate the media for some time to come. That said, the polls are closed, and all eyes are focused on what the ramifications of the incoming Trump administration will be for the U.S. economy.
Economic Newsletter - November 2024
Once again, reports of the recovery's imminent demise are premature. Just as the seasons change, so do perceptions of the economy's health.
Economic Newsletter - October 2024
The U.S. economy is going through a transition phase and is settling into a more sustainable pace of growth, with next year being decent but unspectacular.
Economic Newsletter - September 2024
For the first week of the month, it looked like we were entering the time-honored “dog days of August”, that foreboding mindset people get when they feel stuck in the mud and sense that things just aren’t going right. The first inkling of the blahs was delivered by the Labor Department on August 2nd, when it released a downtrodden employment report for July, which featured weaker than expected job growth and a dispiriting rise in the unemployment rate.
Economic Newsletter - August 2024
In the spring of 2022, the Federal Reserve embarked on a mission to wrestle inflation under control without cratering the economy. At the time, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Deflator, was increasing at a 5.5 percent rate and the unemployment rate stood at 3.6 percent.
Economic Newsletter - July 2024
It’s a long way to Christmas, but with a nod to that beloved holiday ballad, it’s beginning to look a lot like a soft landing. Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, may soon be singing the praises for the way the economy is performing.
Economic Newsletter - June 2024
For economists and policy makers waiting for inflation to subside is like waiting for Godot. But that time may finally have arrived, as the consumer price index rose less than expected in April.
Economic Newsletter - May 2024
Has the Fed thrown in the towel? That’s the question investors are grappling with; and those who think they know the answer are being deceived.
Economic Newsletter - April 2024
With a presidential election looming, geopolitical tensions escalating and a central bank considering a major shift in its policy stance, 2024 looks to be an eventful year with a wide range of possible outcomes.
Economic Newsletter - March 2024
January tends to be an ornery month for economists, and the calendar did not disappoint this year. In the closing months of 2023, it appeared that a Goldilocks economy was unfolding, one that featured a cooling, but still solid, pace of economic activity amid a steady decline in inflation.
Economic Newsletter - February 2024
2023 ended on a high note, punctuated by sharp rallies in both the stock and bond markets, tangible evidence that the economy is on a steady disinflationary growth path, and strong indications that the Fed is poised to cut rates in 2024.
Economic Newsletter - January 2024
The era of low rates ended in March 2022 when the Federal Reserve started the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in a generation, lifting its policy rate 11 times from near zero to a range of 5.25 - 5.50 percent in July of 2023, where it has remained.
Economic Newsletter - December 2023
The holiday shopping season has officially kicked off and while some have predicted a less festive Santa might be coming down the chimney, the nation's collective stockings will not be filled with coal.T
Economic Newsletter - November 2023
The American public may not be feeling better about things, but economists clearly are. Most households think the economy is going in the wrong direction, and consumer confidence in one prominent survey is currently at recession levels. To be sure...
Economic Newsletter - October 2023
As expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the September 19-20 policy meeting, following 11 hikes over the last 18 months that lifted short-term rates from near zero to a range of 5.25-5.50 percent. The jury is still out...
Economic Newsletter - September 2023
Economists are sounding ever-more like Gilda Radner of Saturday Night Live fame, claiming “never mind” about their recession call of a few months ago. What’s behind their mea culpa? Well, the economy for one thing.