Economic Newsletter.

April 2024
With a presidential election looming, geopolitical tensions escalating and a central bank considering a major shift in its policy stance, 2024 looks to be an eventful year with a wide range of possible outcomes.

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Economic Newsletter.

March 2024
January tends to be an ornery month for economists, and the calendar did not disappoint this year. In the closing months of 2023, it appeared that a Goldilocks economy was unfolding, one that featured a cooling, but still solid, pace of economic activity amid a steady decline in inflation.

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Economic Newsletter.

February 2024
2023 ended on a  high note, punctuated by sharp rallies in both the stock and bond markets, tangible evidence that the economy is on a steady disinflationary growth path, and strong indications that the Fed is poised to cut rates in 2024.

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Economic Newsletter.

January 2024
The era of low rates ended in March 2022 when the Federal Reserve started the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in a generation, lifting its policy rate 11 times from near zero to a range of 5.25 - 5.50 percent in July of  2023, where it has remained.

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​​Economic Newsletter.

December 2023
The holiday shopping season has officially kicked off and while some have predicted a less festive Santa might be coming down the chimney, the nation's collective stockings will not be filled with coal.

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Economic Newsletter.

November 2023
The American public may not be feeling better about things, but economists clearly are. Most households think the economy is going in the wrong direction, and consumer confidence in one prominent survey is currently at recession levels. To be sure...

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Economic Newsletter.

October 2023
As expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the September 19-20 policy meeting, following 11 hikes over the last 18 months that lifted short-term rates from near zero to a range of 5.25-5.50 percent. The jury is still out...

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Economic Newsletter.

September 2023
Economists are sounding ever-more like Gilda Radner of Saturday Night Live fame, claiming “never mind” about their recession call of a few months ago. What’s behind their mea culpa? Well, the economy for one thing.

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